Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications.

The aim of this study was to describe spatial and temporal variations in malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia and to examine factors involved in relation to their implications for early warning and interpretation of geographical risk models. Forty-eight epidemic episodes were identified in various areas between September 1986 and August 1993 and factors that might have led to the events investigated using health facility records and weather data. The study showed that epidemics in specific years were associated with specific geographical areas. A major epidemic in 1988 affected the highlands whereas epidemics in 1991 and 1992 affected highland-fringe areas on the escarpments of the Rift Valley and in southern and north-western parts of the country. Malaria epidemics were significantly more often preceded by a month of abnormally high minimum temperature in the preceding 3 months than based on random chance, whereas frequency of abnormally low minimum temperature prior to epidemics was significantly lower than expected. Abnormal increases of maximum temperature and rainfall had no positive association with the epidemics. A period of low incidence during previous transmission seasons might have aggravated the events, possibly due to low level of immunity in affected populations. Epidemic risk is a dynamic phenomenon with changing geographic pattern based on temporal variations in determinant factors including weather and other eco-epidemiological characteristics of areas at risk. Epidemic early warning systems should take account of non-uniform effects of these factors by space and time and thus temporal dimensions need to be considered in spatial models of epidemic risks

Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of different methods of forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in areas with unstable transmission. We tested five methods using incidence data reported from health facilities in 20 areas in central and north-western Ethiopia. The accuracy of each method was determined by calculating errors resulting from the difference between observed incidence and corresponding forecasts obtained for prediction intervals of up to 12 months. Simple seasonal adjustment methods outperformed a statistically more advanced autoregressive integrated moving average method. In particular, a seasonal adjustment method that uses mean deviation of the last three observations from expected seasonal values consistently produced the best forecasts. Using 3 years' observation to generate forecasts with this method gave lower errors than shorter or longer periods. Incidence during the rainy months of June-August was the most predictable with this method. Forecasts for the normally dry months, particularly December-February, were less accurate. The study shows the limitations of forecasting incidence from historical morbidity patterns alone, and indicates the need for improved epidemic early warning by incorporating external predictors such as meteorological factors

Prostate cancer-specific anxiety in Dutch patients on active surveillance: validation of the memorial anxiety scale for prostate cancer

Purpose: Men with prostate cancer (PC) may show specific disease-related anxiety. We evaluated the psychometric properties of the Dutch adaptation of the Memorial Anxiety Scale for Prostate Cancer (MAX-PC). Methods: The MAX-PC was translated using standardized forward-backward procedures. Patients (N = 150) on active surveillance, a strategy of initially withholding active therapy, for recently diagnosed early PC were mailed a questionnaire. Internal consistency was estimated using Cronbach's alpha. The scale structure was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Construct validity was evaluated by Pearson's correlations between MAX-PC scores and scores on decisional conflict (DCS), generic anxiety (STAI), depression (CES-D), and general mental health (SF-12 MCS). Results: Data from 129 respondents were used (response rate 86%). Cronbach's alpha for the total score and the three subscales were 0.77, 0.91, 0.64, and 0.85, respectively. CFA largely confirmed the three-factor structure as used in the original publication (model fit: χ2 149, P = 0.051). The patterns of directions and sizes of the correlations (r = 0.36-0.66) between MAX-PC scale scores and the other variables were in accordance with a priori hypotheses, except for the prostate-specific antigen anxiety subscale. The relatively poor performance of this scale in the original version was replicated. Conclusions: The structure and validity of the MAX-PC to quantify PC-specific anxiety were largely confirmed in Dutch patients

Differences in quality-of-life dimensions of Adult Strabismus Quality of Life and Amblyopia & Strabismus Questionnaires

Purpose: The Adult Strabismus Quality of Life Questionnaire (AS-20) and the Amblyopia & Strabismus Questionnaire (A&SQ) both measure health-related quality of life in strabismus patients. We evaluated to what extent these instruments cover similar domains by identifying the underlying quality-of-life factors of the combined questionnaires. Methods: Participants were adults from a historic cohort with available orthoptic childhood data documenting strabismus and/or amblyopia. They had previously completed the A&SQ and were now asked to complete the AS-20. Factor analysis was performed on the correlation-matrix of the combined AS-20 and A&SQ data to identify common underlying factors. The identified factors were correlated with the clinical variables of angle of strabismus, degree of binocular vision, and visual acuity of the worse eye. Results: One hundred ten patients completed both questionnaires (mean age, 44 years; range, 38–51 years). Six factors were found that together explained 78% of the total variance. The factor structure was dominated by the first four factors. One factor contained psychosocial and social-contact items, and another factor depth-perception items from both questionnaires. A third factor contained seven items—only from the AS-20—on eye strain, stress, and difficulties with reading and with concentrating. A fourth factor contained seven items—only from the A&SQ—on fear of losing the better eye and visual disorientation, specific for amblyopia. Current visual acuity of the worse eye correlated with depth-perception items and vision-related items, whereas current binocular vision correlated with psychosocial and social-contact items, in 93 patients. Conclusions: Factor analysis suggests that the AS-20 and A&SQ measure a similar psychosocial quality-of-life domain. However, functional problems like avoidance of reading, difficulty in concentrating, eye stress, reading problems, inability to enjoy hobbies, and need for frequent breaks when reading are represented only in the AS-20. During the development of the A&SQ, asthenopia items were considered insufficiently specific for strabismus and were excluded a priori. The patients who generated the items for the AS-20 had, in majority, adulthood-onset strabismus and diplopia and were, hence, more likely to develop such complaints than our adult patients with childhood-onset strabismus and/or amblyopia

Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa

BACKGROUND: The Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa has been closed down at the end of 2002. All subsequent control will be transferred to the participating countries and will almost entirely be based on periodic mass treatment with ivermectin. This makes the question whether elimination of infection or eradication of onchocerciasis can be achieved using this strategy of critical importance. This study was undertaken to explore this issue. METHODS: An empirical approach was adopted in which a comprehensive analysis was undertaken of available data on the impact of more than a decade of ivermectin treatment on onchocerciasis infection and transmission. Relevant entomological and epidemiological data from 14 river basins in the OCP and one basin in Cameroon were reviewed. Areas were distinguished by frequency of treatment (6-monthly or annually), endemicity level and additional control measures such as vector control. Assessment of results were in terms of epidemiological and entomological parameters, and as a measure of inputs, therapeutic and geographical coverage rates were used. RESULTS: In all of the river basins studied, ivermectin treatment sharply reduced prevalence and intensity of infection. Significant transmission, however, is still ongoing in some basins after 10–12 years of ivermectin treatment. In other basins, transmission may have been interrupted, but this needs to be confirmed by in-depth evaluations. In one mesoendemic basin, where 20 rounds of four-monthly treatment reduced prevalence of infection to levels as low as 2–3%, there was significant recrudescence of infection within a few years after interruption of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin treatment has been very successful in eliminating onchocerciasis as a public health problem. However, the results presented in this paper make it almost certain that repeated ivermectin mass treatment will not lead to the elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis from West Africa. Data on 6-monthly treatments are not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions

Effectiveness of single dose rifampicin in preventing leprosy in close contacts of patients with newly diagnosed leprosy

Objective To determine the effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis using a single dose of rifampicin to prevent leprosy in close contacts. Design Single centre, double blind, cluster randomised, placebo controlled trial. SettingLeprosy control programme in two districts of northwest Bangladesh with a population of more than four million. Participants28 092 close contacts of 1037 patients with newly diagnosed leprosy. 21 711 contacts fulfilled the study requirements. Interventions A single dose of rifampicin or placebo given to close contacts in the second month of starting the index patient’s treatment, with follow-up for four years. Main outcome measure Development of clinical leprosy. Results 18 869 of the 21 711 contacts (86.9%) were followed-up at four years. Ninety one of 9452 contacts in the placebo group and 59 of 9417 in the rifampicin group had developed leprosy. The overall reduction in incidence of leprosy using a single dose of rifampicin in the first two years was 57% (95% confidence interval 33% to 72%). The groups did not differ between two and four years. The overall number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a single case of leprosy among contacts was 297 (95% confidence interval 176 to 537). Differences were found between subgroups at two years, both in reduction of incidence and in NNT. ConclusionA single dose of rifampicin given to contacts of patients with newly diagnosed leprosy is effective at preventing the development of clinical leprosy at two years. The effect was maintained, but no difference was seen between the placebo and rifampicin groups beyond two years. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN61223447

The role of 'confounding by indication' in assessing the effect of quality of care on disease outcomes in general practice: results of a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: In quality of care research, limited information is found on the relationship between quality of care and disease outcomes. This case-control study was conducted with the aim to assess the effect of guideline adherence for stroke prevention on the occurrence of stroke in general practice. We report on the problems related to a variant of confounding by indication, that may be common in quality of care studies. METHODS: Stroke patients (cases) and controls were recruited from the general practitioner's (GP) patient register, and an expert panel assessed the quality of care of cases and controls using guideline-based review criteria. RESULTS: A total of 86 patients was assessed. Compared to patients without shortcomings in preventive care, patients who received sub-optimal care appeared to have a lower risk of experiencing a stroke (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.24 to 1.53). This result was partly explained by the presenc

Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination

BACKGROUND: In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human use. METHODS: We used ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission, to explore the potentials of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug for the elimination of onchocerciasis under different epidemiological conditions, as characterized by previous intervention strategies, vectorial capacity and levels of coverage. RESULTS: With a high vector biting rate and poor coverage, a very effective macrofilaricide would appear to have a substantially higher potential for achieving elimination of the parasite than does ivermectin. CONCLUSIONS: Macrofilaricides have a substantially higher potential for achieving onchocerciasis elimination than ivermectin, but high coverage levels are still key. When these drugs become available, onchocerciasis elimination strategies should be reconsidered. In view of the impact of control efforts preceding the introduction of macrofilaricides on the success of elimination, it is important to sustain current control efforts

Age- and region-specific hepatitis B prevalence in Turkey estimated using generalized linear mixed models: a systematic review

Toy M, Önder FO, Wörmann T, et al. Age- and region-specific hepatitis B prevalence in Turkey estimated using generalized linear mixed models: a systematic review. BMC infectious diseases. 2011;11(1): 337.BACKGROUND: To provide a clear picture of the current hepatitis B situation, the authors performed a systematic review to estimate the age- and region-specific prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in Turkey. METHODS: A total of 339 studies with original data on the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in Turkey and published between 1999 and 2009 were identified through a search of electronic databases, by reviewing citations, and by writing to authors. After a critical assessment, the authors included 129 studies, divided into categories: 'age-specific'; 'region-specific'; and 'specific population group'. To account for the differences among the studies, a generalized linear mixed model was used to estimate the overall prevalence across all age groups and regions. For specific population groups, the authors calculated the weighted mean prevalence. RESULTS: The estimated overall population prevalence was 4.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.58, 5.76, and the estimated total number of CHB cases was about 3.3 million. The outcomes of the age-specific groups varied from 2.84, (95% CI: 2.60, 3.10) for the 0-14-year olds to 6.36 (95% CI: 5.83, 6.90) in the 25-34-year-old group. CONCLUSION: There are large age-group and regional differences in CHB prevalence in Turkey, where CHB remains a serious health problem